A Limited Economy - the Pitfalls of Fulton County's growth

As I briefly mentioned in the Beltway article, there are five pillars of Fulton County's economy:

Banking
Corporate Headquarters that generally moved here from somewhere else
Selling Weapons to Exactly one Customer
Passenger & Mail Air Hub (Atlanta Hartsfield, Delta & AirTran Airlines, UPS and FedEx)
Mainstream Media, including CNN and Turner Studios

Besides these, there are a few smaller sectors, including being a retailer for nearby rural areas, freight railroads, and research. But the majority of the economy is based on these five. One of these has already hit the ground and won't likely grow for quite some time (Banking). Two of these are flaky (guess which?) One has been damaged by high fuel prices, and many experts believe will continue to decline in the future due to a combination of high fuel prices and competition with high-speed rail (Air travel) and one of these is already on it's deathbed (MSM.) So where do we go from here?

Maybe we should start with research. Georgia Tech is already the 4th best engineering school in the country, tied for that honor with Cal Tech and University of Illinois. Its' Systems Engineering (ISyE) program in particular has been the best in the country, at Undergrad, grad, and PhD, for years, while it's Aerospace, Civil, Biomedical and Chemical programs are also consistently in the top 5, and all but one program (Environmental) are in the top 10 (US News & WR). Our College of Computing is 9th according to US News & World Report, and one of only five that Microsoft recruits from. And we are among the greatest centers of Optics research in the world. What's more, a state of the art Nanotech research institute was built on Atlantic Drive on the north-end of campus, completed just in the last few months. Perhaps Atlanta can become a great center of nanotech research and manufacturing?

Further, freight rail service (a minor contributor to growth) will likely continue to grow as the Southeast grows industrially. This may mean more work for mechanics, warehouse workers, and tracklayers in the Atlanta area, but one would doubt that, even under optimal conditions, this could be a major driver of growth. It might even drive out some growth as the rail lines become too congested to allow Atlanta to be a major distribution center.

The rap music scene has succeeded at establishing Atlanta as a center of tourism. But these fads come and go, and besides the rap clubs, does Atlanta really have that many impressive tourist spots? Especially for long-distance, fly-in tourism?

In industries not yet explored, there is still some potential for manufacturing. Though most manufacturing in Atlanta died years ago, land is still cheaper in Atlanta then almost any other major American city, and the great availability of freight and air transit is a valuable asset. Low taxations and light regulations could help convince factories to move here. But then again, those same railways may simply get too congested here, pushing the factories further out to places like Dalton, Columbus, Athens, and Macon where constructing sidings and bypasses is easier.

Retail is about as far ahead in Atlanta as it can be, and with the growth of Dot Com retailers like Amazon, it is doubtful that it will continue to be a major economic centralizer on the level of what it was in the last century, when entire cities like Seattle, Victoria, and Portland were largely built by outfitting. Today, I doubt any city will be built by that again, except perhaps in very specialized high-end sectors (like farm-equipment) with security issues that have grown as much as they can here in America.

Consulting and business services has grown here, GaTech being first in ISyE and towards the top in Computer Science and Business helps, but these don't employ that many people, though the jobs they do create are extremely well-paid. If sectors like Consulting make up all of our growth, our entire blue-collar class will be left unemployed.

I doubt we can expand our railroads much, but expansion of freeways is politically feasible and can aid in the freight handling of many industries. In particular, I-85 can be rerouted through the Eastern side of downtown (largely undeveloped areas) to provide a partial beltway and carry traffic away from the connector. Also could help expand downtown in size by decentralizing the transit links somewhat.

In all, Fulton County faces a very uncertain economic future. We need to tread lightly in coming years.